Experimental and unaudited. TRA targets 1 USD but is not redeemable for USD and may lose its value. Converting TRA into TRM is not a redemption.
Psychohistory Lab

The Prime Radiant

Reproducible simulations of the conversion mechanism under normal and adverse scenarios (psychohistory 0.1.0, seed 42, 30 days per run).

Simulator output · Ethereum
Reproducible futures

15 scenarios, 108 sensitivity cells

Each run follows the closed formulas and limits of the contracts hour by hour, against simulated single-sided Uniswap v4 markets. Same seed, same result, every time. A model of crowds, not a prophecy.

Simulated, not observed

Psychohistory Lab output. Simulated, not a forecast: results depend on behavioural assumptions that are not calibrated to market data and must not be used as evidence that the mechanism works in real markets. Regenerate with python -m psychohistory all in simulator/, then npm run sync:lab.

TRA at 0.96 USD

A large holder sells TRA down to a 4 % discount over six hours on day 2.

Question: Does contraction (burn TRA, mint TRM) restore the target before holders panic, and at what TRM dilution?

Lowest TRA price0.967 USD
Time outside ±2 %0.3 %2 of 720 hours
Recovery1 hBack inside ±2 % for 24 h
TRM price change+26.2 %Max drawdown 13.1 %
TRM supply change+0.15 %147.66K minted · 0 burned
Rejected conversion hours0.0 %0 of 11 attempts
Circuit breaker hours9 h8 activations
Lowest bid coverage0.0 %Protocol USDT ÷ circulating TRA (start 50.2 %)
Genesis TRA sold0.4 %Protocol position holds $43.13K USDT at the end
Max redemption pressure13xTRA float ÷ executable TRM liquidity

TRA pool price (USD)

Shaded: the ±2 % alert band. Line: the 1 USD target.

TRA pool price in USD
0.9801.0001.020day 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
01.0051.005
41.0051.005
81.0051.005
121.0051.005
161.0051.005
201.0051.005
241.0051.005
281.0051.005
321.0051.005
361.0051.005
401.0051.005
441.0051.005
480.9831.005
520.9831.005
560.9671.005
601.0001.005
641.0001.005
681.0001.005
721.0001.005
761.0001.005
801.0001.005
841.0001.005
881.0001.005
921.0001.005
961.0001.005
1001.0001.005
1041.0001.005
1081.0001.005
1121.0001.005
1161.0001.005
1201.0001.005
1241.0001.005
1281.0001.005
1321.0001.005
1361.0001.005
1401.0001.005
1441.0001.005
1481.0001.005
1521.0001.005
1561.0001.005
1601.0001.005
1641.0001.005
1681.0001.005
1721.0001.005
1761.0001.005
1801.0001.005
1841.0001.005
1881.0001.005
1921.0001.005
1961.0001.005
2001.0001.005
2041.0001.005
2081.0001.005
2121.0001.005
2160.9831.005
2201.0001.005
2241.0001.005
2281.0001.005
2321.0001.005
2361.0001.005
2401.0001.005
2441.0001.005
2481.0001.005
2520.9721.005
2561.0001.005
2601.0001.005
2641.0001.005
2680.9991.005
2721.0001.005
2761.0001.005
2801.0001.005
2841.0001.005
2881.0001.005
2921.0001.005
2961.0001.005
3001.0001.005
3041.0001.005
3081.0001.005
3121.0001.005
3161.0001.005
3201.0001.005
3241.0001.005
3281.0001.005
3321.0001.005
3361.0001.005
3401.0001.005
3441.0001.005
3481.0001.005
3521.0001.005
3561.0001.005
3601.0001.005
3641.0001.005
3681.0001.005
3721.0001.005
3761.0001.005
3801.0001.005
3841.0001.005
3881.0001.005
3921.0001.005
3961.0001.005
4001.0001.005
4041.0001.005
4081.0001.005
4121.0001.005
4161.0001.005
4201.0001.005
4241.0001.005
4281.0001.005
4321.0001.005
4361.0001.004
4401.0001.005
4441.0001.004
4481.0001.004
4521.0001.004
4561.0001.004
4601.0001.004
4641.0001.004
4681.0001.004
4721.0001.004
4761.0001.005
4801.0001.005
4841.0001.005
4881.0001.004
4921.0001.004
4961.0001.004
5001.0001.004
5041.0001.004
5081.0001.004
5121.0001.004
5161.0001.004
5201.0001.004
5241.0001.004
5281.0001.004
5321.0001.004
5361.0001.004
5401.0001.004
5441.0001.004
5481.0001.004
5521.0001.004
5561.0001.004
5601.0001.004
5641.0001.004
5681.0001.004
5721.0001.004
5761.0001.004
5801.0001.004
5841.0001.004
5881.0001.004
5921.0001.004
5961.0001.004
6001.0001.004
6041.0001.004
6081.0001.004
6121.0001.004
6161.0001.004
6201.0001.004
6241.0001.004
6281.0001.004
6321.0001.004
6361.0001.004
6401.0001.004
6441.0001.004
6481.0001.004
6521.0001.004
6561.0001.004
6601.0001.004
6641.0001.004
6681.0001.004
6721.0001.004
6761.0001.004
6801.0001.004
6841.0001.004
6881.0001.004
6921.0001.004
6961.0001.004
7001.0001.004
7041.0001.004
7081.0001.004
7121.0001.004
7161.0001.004

TRM pool price (USD)

TRM pool price in USD
0.6000.700day 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
00.6020.602
40.6030.603
80.6020.602
120.6020.602
160.6000.600
200.6140.614
240.6170.617
280.6140.614
320.6080.608
360.6090.609
400.6110.611
440.6250.625
480.6190.619
520.6260.627
560.6140.616
600.6120.613
640.6120.614
680.6060.607
720.6160.617
760.6100.612
800.5990.600
840.5880.590
880.5840.585
920.5820.583
960.5940.595
1000.5860.588
1040.5850.587
1080.5760.578
1120.5800.582
1160.5680.570
1200.5720.574
1240.5780.580
1280.5760.579
1320.5750.578
1360.5620.564
1400.5780.580
1440.5780.580
1480.5710.573
1520.5730.575
1560.5840.586
1600.5800.583
1640.5860.589
1680.5840.587
1720.5840.586
1760.5770.579
1800.5810.583
1840.5880.590
1880.5850.587
1920.5730.575
1960.5690.572
2000.5670.570
2040.5750.578
2080.5690.572
2120.5710.574
2160.5740.577
2200.5710.574
2240.5610.565
2280.5550.558
2320.5530.556
2360.5570.560
2400.5670.570
2440.5660.569
2480.5550.558
2520.5450.549
2560.5580.562
2600.5580.562
2640.5680.571
2680.5540.558
2720.5490.553
2760.5440.548
2800.5540.558
2840.5570.560
2880.5550.559
2920.5560.560
2960.5560.559
3000.5590.563
3040.5610.565
3080.5690.573
3120.5720.576
3160.5770.581
3200.5730.577
3240.5740.578
3280.5690.573
3320.5820.586
3360.5820.586
3400.5840.588
3440.5810.585
3480.5840.588
3520.5920.596
3560.5940.598
3600.5960.600
3640.5950.599
3680.6030.607
3720.5970.601
3760.5930.597
3800.5800.584
3840.5890.593
3880.5940.598
3920.5970.601
3960.6050.609
4000.6110.615
4040.6080.612
4080.6050.609
4120.6010.606
4160.6130.617
4200.6120.617
4240.6170.621
4280.6220.626
4320.6260.630
4360.6250.630
4400.6420.646
4440.6450.650
4480.6410.646
4520.6430.647
4560.6270.632
4600.6230.627
4640.6160.621
4680.6320.637
4720.6350.640
4760.6330.638
4800.6320.637
4840.6170.622
4880.6140.619
4920.6250.630
4960.6430.648
5000.6370.642
5040.6350.639
5080.6450.649
5120.6560.660
5160.6440.648
5200.6500.655
5240.6560.661
5280.6610.666
5320.6820.687
5360.6860.690
5400.6670.672
5440.6790.684
5480.6890.694
5520.6860.691
5560.6930.698
5600.7020.707
5640.7130.718
5680.7210.726
5720.7120.717
5760.7010.706
5800.7070.712
5840.7060.711
5880.7070.712
5920.7030.708
5960.7080.713
6000.6950.700
6040.6990.703
6080.6930.698
6120.6860.691
6160.6870.692
6200.6880.693
6240.6880.692
6280.6970.702
6320.7060.710
6360.7040.709
6400.7180.723
6440.7310.736
6480.7330.738
6520.7460.751
6560.7550.761
6600.7550.760
6640.7620.767
6680.7660.771
6720.7680.774
6760.7490.755
6800.7540.759
6840.7440.749
6880.7410.746
6920.7290.734
6960.7260.731
7000.7550.760
7040.7450.751
7080.7550.761
7120.7490.754
7160.7580.763

TRA supply

Falls when contraction burns TRA; rises with expansion.

TRA supply
15.18M15.2M15.23M15.25Mday 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25TRA at 0.96 USDStable market
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
015.25M15.25M
415.25M15.25M
815.25M15.25M
1215.25M15.25M
1615.25M15.25M
2015.25M15.25M
2415.25M15.25M
2815.25M15.25M
3215.25M15.25M
3615.25M15.25M
4015.25M15.25M
4415.25M15.25M
4815.24M15.25M
5215.23M15.25M
5615.21M15.25M
6015.21M15.25M
6415.21M15.25M
6815.21M15.25M
7215.21M15.25M
7615.21M15.25M
8015.21M15.25M
8415.21M15.25M
8815.21M15.25M
9215.21M15.25M
9615.21M15.25M
10015.21M15.25M
10415.2M15.25M
10815.2M15.25M
11215.2M15.25M
11615.2M15.25M
12015.2M15.25M
12415.2M15.25M
12815.2M15.25M
13215.2M15.25M
13615.2M15.25M
14015.2M15.25M
14415.2M15.25M
14815.2M15.25M
15215.2M15.25M
15615.2M15.25M
16015.2M15.25M
16415.2M15.25M
16815.2M15.25M
17215.2M15.25M
17615.2M15.25M
18015.2M15.25M
18415.2M15.25M
18815.2M15.25M
19215.19M15.25M
19615.19M15.25M
20015.19M15.25M
20415.19M15.25M
20815.19M15.25M
21215.19M15.25M
21615.18M15.25M
22015.18M15.25M
22415.18M15.25M
22815.18M15.25M
23215.18M15.25M
23615.18M15.25M
24015.18M15.25M
24415.18M15.25M
24815.18M15.25M
25215.17M15.25M
25615.16M15.25M
26015.16M15.25M
26415.16M15.25M
26815.16M15.25M
27215.16M15.25M
27615.16M15.25M
28015.16M15.25M
28415.16M15.25M
28815.16M15.25M
29215.16M15.25M
29615.16M15.25M
30015.16M15.25M
30415.16M15.25M
30815.16M15.25M
31215.16M15.25M
31615.16M15.25M
32015.16M15.25M
32415.16M15.25M
32815.16M15.25M
33215.16M15.25M
33615.16M15.25M
34015.16M15.25M
34415.16M15.25M
34815.16M15.25M
35215.16M15.25M
35615.16M15.25M
36015.16M15.25M
36415.16M15.25M
36815.16M15.25M
37215.16M15.25M
37615.16M15.25M
38015.16M15.25M
38415.16M15.25M
38815.16M15.25M
39215.16M15.25M
39615.16M15.25M
40015.16M15.25M
40415.16M15.25M
40815.16M15.25M
41215.16M15.25M
41615.16M15.25M
42015.16M15.25M
42415.16M15.25M
42815.16M15.25M
43215.16M15.25M
43615.16M15.25M
44015.16M15.25M
44415.16M15.25M
44815.16M15.25M
45215.16M15.25M
45615.16M15.25M
46015.16M15.25M
46415.16M15.25M
46815.16M15.25M
47215.16M15.25M
47615.16M15.25M
48015.16M15.25M
48415.16M15.25M
48815.16M15.25M
49215.16M15.25M
49615.16M15.25M
50015.16M15.25M
50415.16M15.25M
50815.16M15.25M
51215.16M15.25M
51615.16M15.25M
52015.16M15.25M
52415.16M15.25M
52815.16M15.25M
53215.16M15.25M
53615.16M15.25M
54015.16M15.25M
54415.16M15.25M
54815.16M15.25M
55215.16M15.25M
55615.16M15.25M
56015.16M15.25M
56415.16M15.25M
56815.16M15.25M
57215.16M15.25M
57615.16M15.25M
58015.16M15.25M
58415.16M15.25M
58815.16M15.25M
59215.16M15.25M
59615.16M15.25M
60015.16M15.25M
60415.16M15.25M
60815.16M15.25M
61215.16M15.25M
61615.16M15.25M
62015.16M15.25M
62415.16M15.25M
62815.16M15.25M
63215.16M15.25M
63615.16M15.25M
64015.16M15.25M
64415.16M15.25M
64815.16M15.25M
65215.16M15.25M
65615.16M15.25M
66015.16M15.25M
66415.16M15.25M
66815.16M15.25M
67215.16M15.25M
67615.16M15.25M
68015.16M15.25M
68415.16M15.25M
68815.16M15.25M
69215.16M15.25M
69615.16M15.25M
70015.16M15.25M
70415.16M15.25M
70815.16M15.25M
71215.16M15.25M
71615.16M15.25M

TRM supply

Rises when contraction mints TRM: the dilution channel.

TRM supply
100M100.05M100.1M100.15Mday 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25TRA at 0.96 USDStable market
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
0100M100M
4100M100M
8100M100M
12100M100M
16100M100M
20100M100M
24100M100M
28100M100M
32100M100M
36100M100M
40100M100M
44100M100M
48100.02M100M
52100.04M100M
56100.06M100M
60100.06M100M
64100.06M100M
68100.06M100M
72100.06M100M
76100.06M100M
80100.06M100M
84100.06M100M
88100.06M100M
92100.06M100M
96100.06M100M
100100.06M100M
104100.08M100M
108100.08M100M
112100.08M100M
116100.08M100M
120100.08M100M
124100.08M100M
128100.08M100M
132100.08M100M
136100.08M100M
140100.08M100M
144100.08M100M
148100.08M100M
152100.08M100M
156100.08M100M
160100.08M100M
164100.08M100M
168100.08M100M
172100.08M100M
176100.08M100M
180100.08M100M
184100.08M100M
188100.08M100M
192100.1M100M
196100.1M100M
200100.1M100M
204100.1M100M
208100.1M100M
212100.1M100M
216100.11M100M
220100.11M100M
224100.11M100M
228100.11M100M
232100.11M100M
236100.11M100M
240100.11M100M
244100.11M100M
248100.11M100M
252100.13M100M
256100.15M100M
260100.15M100M
264100.15M100M
268100.15M100M
272100.15M100M
276100.15M100M
280100.15M100M
284100.15M100M
288100.15M100M
292100.15M100M
296100.15M100M
300100.15M100M
304100.15M100M
308100.15M100M
312100.15M100M
316100.15M100M
320100.15M100M
324100.15M100M
328100.15M100M
332100.15M100M
336100.15M100M
340100.15M100M
344100.15M100M
348100.15M100M
352100.15M100M
356100.15M100M
360100.15M100M
364100.15M100M
368100.15M100M
372100.15M100M
376100.15M100M
380100.15M100M
384100.15M100M
388100.15M100M
392100.15M100M
396100.15M100M
400100.15M100M
404100.15M100M
408100.15M100M
412100.15M100M
416100.15M100M
420100.15M100M
424100.15M100M
428100.15M100M
432100.15M100M
436100.15M100M
440100.15M100M
444100.15M100M
448100.15M100M
452100.15M100M
456100.15M100M
460100.15M100M
464100.15M100M
468100.15M100M
472100.15M100M
476100.15M100M
480100.15M100M
484100.15M100M
488100.15M100M
492100.15M100M
496100.15M100M
500100.15M100M
504100.15M100M
508100.15M100M
512100.15M100M
516100.15M100M
520100.15M100M
524100.15M100M
528100.15M100M
532100.15M100M
536100.15M100M
540100.15M100M
544100.15M100M
548100.15M100M
552100.15M100M
556100.15M100M
560100.15M100M
564100.15M100M
568100.15M100M
572100.15M100M
576100.15M100M
580100.15M100M
584100.15M100M
588100.15M100M
592100.15M100M
596100.15M100M
600100.15M100M
604100.15M100M
608100.15M100M
612100.15M100M
616100.15M100M
620100.15M100M
624100.15M100M
628100.15M100M
632100.15M100M
636100.15M100M
640100.15M100M
644100.15M100M
648100.15M100M
652100.15M100M
656100.15M100M
660100.15M100M
664100.15M100M
668100.15M100M
672100.15M100M
676100.15M100M
680100.15M100M
684100.15M100M
688100.15M100M
692100.15M100M
696100.15M100M
700100.15M100M
704100.15M100M
708100.15M100M
712100.15M100M
716100.15M100M

Executable TRM liquidity (USD)

USD of TRM sellable with at most 5 % price impact.

Executable TRM liquidity in USD
$800K$900K$1Mday 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
0$798.92K$798.92K
4$800.32K$800.32K
8$798.03K$798.03K
12$798.28K$798.28K
16$796.16K$796.16K
20$813.14K$813.14K
24$817.59K$817.59K
28$815.18K$815.18K
32$808.45K$808.45K
36$811.49K$811.49K
40$811.66K$811.66K
44$830.36K$830.36K
48$820.86K$821.19K
52$828.69K$829.27K
56$811.26K$812.25K
60$806.05K$807.07K
64$806.73K$807.77K
68$799.16K$800.23K
72$811.31K$812.43K
76$804.09K$805.21K
80$789.9K$791.02K
84$775.61K$776.71K
88$771.78K$772.88K
92$767.74K$768.83K
96$784.72K$785.83K
100$776.93K$778.03K
104$775.2K$776.59K
108$766.98K$768.37K
112$771.54K$772.95K
116$756.4K$757.79K
120$761.21K$762.62K
124$767.41K$768.83K
128$764.98K$766.41K
132$763.21K$764.63K
136$745.24K$746.63K
140$765.47K$766.9K
144$763.95K$765.37K
148$753.63K$755.03K
152$757.3K$758.71K
156$770.89K$772.32K
160$768.71K$770.15K
164$777.15K$778.6K
168$775.95K$777.39K
172$775.35K$776.8K
176$766.61K$768.05K
180$771.16K$772.6K
184$781.97K$783.43K
188$777.12K$778.57K
192$763.86K$765.63K
196$758.79K$760.55K
200$755.43K$757.2K
204$768.26K$770.07K
208$761.46K$763.28K
212$765.05K$766.88K
216$770.86K$772.91K
220$765.89K$767.93K
224$752.87K$754.89K
228$746.08K$748.09K
232$744.64K$746.65K
236$747.95K$749.97K
240$762.01K$764.08K
244$759.82K$761.88K
248$744.97K$746.99K
252$731.55K$733.81K
256$748.62K$751.15K
260$750.96K$753.52K
264$762.26K$764.87K
268$744.36K$746.92K
272$738.19K$740.76K
276$732.63K$735.19K
280$742.88K$745.48K
284$744.71K$747.31K
288$743.11K$745.7K
292$745.02K$747.62K
296$745.77K$748.37K
300$751.16K$753.79K
304$751.61K$754.23K
308$764.06K$766.73K
312$766.49K$769.16K
316$774.25K$776.95K
320$769.54K$772.23K
324$770.94K$773.64K
328$766.64K$769.33K
332$783.87K$786.62K
336$782.8K$785.54K
340$783.39K$786.12K
344$777.24K$779.94K
348$781.2K$783.92K
352$790.56K$793.31K
356$793.95K$796.71K
360$794.79K$797.55K
364$794.85K$797.62K
368$802.7K$805.48K
372$795.83K$798.59K
376$790.29K$793.03K
380$772.41K$775.08K
384$782.41K$785.12K
388$789.79K$792.52K
392$794.11K$796.86K
396$805.26K$808.05K
400$814.85K$817.68K
404$810.78K$813.59K
408$808.54K$811.36K
412$806.25K$809.06K
416$821.28K$824.14K
420$821.05K$823.92K
424$825.25K$828.12K
428$832.6K$835.5K
432$837.24K$840.16K
436$836.63K$839.54K
440$857.68K$860.66K
444$862.96K$865.96K
448$857.44K$860.43K
452$860.06K$863.05K
456$840.91K$843.85K
460$834.22K$837.13K
464$826.76K$829.65K
468$848.19K$851.15K
472$854.8K$857.79K
476$852.17K$855.16K
480$850.99K$853.97K
484$832.96K$835.88K
488$831.2K$834.13K
492$843.81K$846.77K
496$867.98K$871.02K
500$861.24K$864.27K
504$858.48K$861.5K
508$869.99K$873.04K
512$883.63K$886.73K
516$868.15K$871.19K
520$876.1K$879.17K
524$882.59K$885.68K
528$888.86K$891.97K
532$916.77K$919.98K
536$922.43K$925.66K
540$898.52K$901.67K
544$914.55K$917.75K
548$929.01K$932.27K
552$925.2K$928.45K
556$936.43K$939.72K
560$947.9K$951.23K
564$962.33K$965.71K
568$972.82K$976.23K
572$960.94K$964.32K
576$946.26K$949.58K
580$953.73K$957.07K
584$954.48K$957.84K
588$956.26K$959.63K
592$950.76K$954.1K
596$956.31K$959.67K
600$939.19K$942.49K
604$940.87K$944.17K
608$933.88K$937.16K
612$925.69K$928.94K
616$928.2K$931.46K
620$928.33K$931.58K
624$925.85K$929.09K
628$942.6K$945.92K
632$951.61K$954.95K
636$952.04K$955.39K
640$970.86K$974.28K
644$987.96K$991.44K
648$990.51K$993.99K
652$1.01M$1.01M
656$1.02M$1.02M
660$1.02M$1.02M
664$1.03M$1.03M
668$1.03M$1.03M
672$1.03M$1.04M
676$1.01M$1.01M
680$1.01M$1.02M
684$998.24K$1M
688$998.03K$1M
692$981.57K$985.01K
696$975.63K$979.04K
700$1.02M$1.02M
704$1M$1.01M
708$1.02M$1.02M
712$1.01M$1.01M
716$1.02M$1.02M

Bid coverage of circulating TRA

USDT in the protocol's single-sided position ÷ TRA outside it. Not a redemption right.

Bid coverage of circulating TRA
0 %20 %40 %day 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25TRA at 0.96 USDStable market
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
050 %50 %
450 %50 %
850 %50 %
1250 %50 %
1650 %50 %
2050 %50 %
2450 %50 %
2850 %50 %
3250 %50 %
3650 %50 %
4050 %50 %
4450 %50 %
480 %50 %
520 %50 %
560 %50 %
600 %50 %
640 %50 %
680 %50 %
720 %50 %
760 %50 %
800 %50 %
840 %50 %
880 %50 %
920 %50 %
960 %50 %
1000 %50 %
1040 %50 %
1080 %50 %
1120 %50 %
1160 %50 %
1200 %50 %
1240 %50 %
1281 %50 %
1320 %50 %
1360 %50 %
1400 %49 %
1440 %50 %
1481 %50 %
1521 %50 %
1561 %50 %
1601 %50 %
1641 %49 %
1680 %49 %
1720 %49 %
1760 %49 %
1800 %49 %
1840 %49 %
1880 %49 %
1920 %49 %
1960 %49 %
2000 %49 %
2040 %49 %
2080 %49 %
2120 %49 %
2160 %49 %
2200 %49 %
2240 %49 %
2281 %49 %
2320 %49 %
2360 %49 %
2400 %49 %
2440 %49 %
2480 %49 %
2520 %49 %
2560 %49 %
2600 %49 %
2640 %49 %
2680 %48 %
2720 %49 %
2760 %48 %
2800 %49 %
2840 %49 %
2881 %49 %
2921 %49 %
2961 %49 %
3000 %48 %
3040 %48 %
3080 %48 %
3120 %48 %
3160 %48 %
3201 %48 %
3241 %48 %
3280 %48 %
3320 %48 %
3361 %48 %
3401 %48 %
3441 %48 %
3481 %48 %
3521 %48 %
3560 %48 %
3600 %48 %
3640 %48 %
3680 %48 %
3720 %48 %
3760 %48 %
3800 %48 %
3840 %48 %
3881 %48 %
3920 %48 %
3961 %48 %
4001 %48 %
4041 %48 %
4081 %48 %
4121 %48 %
4161 %48 %
4201 %48 %
4241 %48 %
4281 %48 %
4321 %48 %
4361 %48 %
4401 %48 %
4441 %48 %
4481 %48 %
4521 %48 %
4561 %48 %
4601 %48 %
4641 %48 %
4681 %48 %
4721 %48 %
4762 %48 %
4802 %48 %
4842 %48 %
4882 %48 %
4922 %48 %
4962 %48 %
5002 %48 %
5041 %48 %
5081 %48 %
5121 %48 %
5161 %48 %
5201 %48 %
5241 %48 %
5281 %48 %
5321 %47 %
5361 %47 %
5401 %47 %
5441 %47 %
5481 %47 %
5521 %47 %
5561 %47 %
5601 %47 %
5641 %47 %
5681 %47 %
5721 %47 %
5761 %47 %
5801 %47 %
5841 %47 %
5880 %47 %
5921 %47 %
5961 %47 %
6001 %47 %
6041 %47 %
6081 %47 %
6120 %47 %
6160 %47 %
6200 %47 %
6240 %47 %
6280 %47 %
6320 %47 %
6360 %47 %
6400 %47 %
6440 %47 %
6480 %47 %
6520 %47 %
6561 %47 %
6600 %47 %
6640 %47 %
6680 %46 %
6720 %47 %
6760 %47 %
6801 %47 %
6841 %47 %
6881 %47 %
6921 %47 %
6961 %46 %
7000 %46 %
7041 %46 %
7081 %46 %
7121 %46 %
7161 %46 %

Genesis TRA still in the protocol position

Falls as buyers take TRA at 1.00–1.01 USDT; rises when sellers hit its bids.

Genesis TRA still in the protocol position
05M10Mday 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25TRA at 0.96 USDStable market
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
04.99M4.99M
44.99M4.99M
84.99M4.99M
125M5M
165M5M
205.01M5.01M
245.01M5.01M
285M5M
325M5M
365M5M
405.01M5.01M
445.01M5.01M
4810M5.02M
5210M5.03M
5610M5.04M
6010M5.05M
649.99M5.05M
6810M5.06M
729.99M5.06M
769.98M5.05M
809.98M5.05M
849.99M5.06M
889.99M5.06M
9210M5.08M
969.98M5.07M
10010M5.09M
10410M5.1M
1089.99M5.1M
1129.98M5.09M
1169.98M5.1M
1209.99M5.1M
1249.98M5.1M
1289.97M5.1M
1329.98M5.11M
1369.99M5.12M
1409.99M5.13M
1449.98M5.12M
1489.97M5.12M
1529.97M5.12M
1569.97M5.12M
1609.96M5.11M
1649.97M5.13M
1689.98M5.14M
1729.98M5.15M
1769.98M5.15M
1809.98M5.16M
18410M5.18M
18810M5.19M
19210M5.2M
1969.99M5.2M
2009.99M5.2M
20410M5.22M
20810M5.23M
21210M5.24M
21610M5.25M
22010M5.26M
2249.99M5.25M
2289.98M5.24M
2329.98M5.25M
2369.99M5.26M
24010M5.27M
2449.99M5.27M
2489.99M5.28M
25210M5.3M
2569.98M5.29M
2609.98M5.29M
2649.98M5.29M
26810M5.31M
2729.99M5.3M
27610M5.32M
2809.98M5.31M
2849.98M5.31M
2889.97M5.3M
2929.97M5.31M
2969.97M5.31M
3009.98M5.32M
3049.98M5.32M
3089.98M5.33M
3129.98M5.34M
3169.98M5.33M
3209.97M5.33M
3249.97M5.33M
3289.98M5.35M
3329.98M5.35M
3369.97M5.35M
3409.97M5.35M
3449.97M5.35M
3489.96M5.35M
3529.97M5.36M
3569.98M5.37M
3609.99M5.39M
36410M5.4M
3689.98M5.39M
3729.99M5.4M
3769.99M5.4M
3809.98M5.4M
3849.99M5.41M
3889.97M5.4M
3929.98M5.41M
3969.97M5.4M
4009.95M5.39M
4049.94M5.38M
4089.94M5.39M
4129.94M5.39M
4169.94M5.4M
4209.95M5.4M
4249.95M5.41M
4289.95M5.41M
4329.96M5.43M
4369.96M5.43M
4409.95M5.43M
4449.95M5.43M
4489.96M5.44M
4529.96M5.45M
4569.97M5.46M
4609.95M5.45M
4649.95M5.45M
4689.95M5.45M
4729.93M5.43M
4769.91M5.42M
4809.91M5.42M
4849.91M5.42M
4889.91M5.43M
4929.92M5.44M
4969.92M5.45M
5009.92M5.45M
5049.93M5.47M
5089.93M5.47M
5129.93M5.47M
5169.93M5.47M
5209.93M5.47M
5249.93M5.48M
5289.94M5.49M
5329.94M5.5M
5369.94M5.5M
5409.94M5.51M
5449.95M5.52M
5489.95M5.52M
5529.95M5.53M
5569.96M5.54M
5609.96M5.54M
5649.96M5.54M
5689.96M5.55M
5729.97M5.56M
5769.97M5.56M
5809.97M5.57M
5849.98M5.58M
5889.98M5.58M
5929.97M5.58M
5969.97M5.58M
6009.97M5.58M
6049.97M5.59M
6089.97M5.6M
6129.98M5.61M
6169.98M5.61M
6209.99M5.62M
6249.99M5.63M
6289.99M5.63M
6329.99M5.64M
6369.99M5.64M
6409.99M5.64M
6449.99M5.64M
64810M5.66M
6529.98M5.65M
6569.97M5.64M
6609.98M5.65M
6649.98M5.66M
66810M5.68M
6729.99M5.67M
6769.98M5.67M
6809.97M5.66M
6849.97M5.67M
6889.96M5.66M
6929.95M5.66M
6969.97M5.67M
7009.98M5.69M
7049.97M5.68M
7089.97M5.69M
7129.97M5.69M
7169.96M5.68M

ETH/USD

TRM trades against ETH, so ETH moves change TRM's USD price and the USD value of the protocol's ETH bids.

ETH price in USD
$2,500$3,000day 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
0$2,504.5$2,504.5
4$2,508.5$2,508.5
8$2,499.5$2,499.5
12$2,498.4$2,498.4
16$2,493.1$2,493.1
20$2,544.2$2,544.2
24$2,558.8$2,558.8
28$2,555$2,555
32$2,539.2$2,539.2
36$2,551.5$2,551.5
40$2,547.6$2,547.6
44$2,605.1$2,605.1
48$2,571.3$2,571.3
52$2,590.9$2,590.9
56$2,530$2,530
60$2,509$2,509
64$2,510.4$2,510.4
68$2,490.2$2,490.2
72$2,525.1$2,525.1
76$2,501.9$2,501.9
80$2,461.9$2,461.9
84$2,415.7$2,415.7
88$2,410.2$2,410.2
92$2,392.6$2,392.6
96$2,449.5$2,449.5
100$2,431.5$2,431.5
104$2,424.7$2,424.7
108$2,410.7$2,410.7
112$2,423.9$2,423.9
116$2,377.4$2,377.4
120$2,393.2$2,393.2
124$2,408$2,408
128$2,397.6$2,397.6
132$2,390.5$2,390.5
136$2,334.8$2,334.8
140$2,395.5$2,395.5
144$2,386.1$2,386.1
148$2,349$2,349
152$2,365.3$2,365.3
156$2,403.8$2,403.8
160$2,404.5$2,404.5
164$2,432.3$2,432.3
168$2,433.1$2,433.1
172$2,431$2,431
176$2,405.1$2,405.1
180$2,417.4$2,417.4
184$2,455.9$2,455.9
188$2,439.9$2,439.9
192$2,405.7$2,405.7
196$2,388.4$2,388.4
200$2,377.1$2,377.1
204$2,423.4$2,423.4
208$2,406.5$2,406.5
212$2,419.3$2,419.3
216$2,443.5$2,443.5
220$2,427.8$2,427.8
224$2,383.9$2,383.9
228$2,370$2,370
232$2,367.5$2,367.5
236$2,371.7$2,371.7
240$2,418$2,418
244$2,408.3$2,408.3
248$2,361.7$2,361.7
252$2,317.5$2,317.5
256$2,371.9$2,371.9
260$2,387.8$2,387.8
264$2,417.6$2,417.6
268$2,361.4$2,361.4
272$2,344.8$2,344.8
276$2,329.1$2,329.1
280$2,353.4$2,353.4
284$2,353.1$2,353.1
288$2,350.1$2,350.1
292$2,358.1$2,358.1
296$2,363.9$2,363.9
300$2,382.3$2,382.3
304$2,379.4$2,379.4
308$2,420.8$2,420.8
312$2,427.2$2,427.2
316$2,454.1$2,454.1
320$2,440.6$2,440.6
324$2,446.3$2,446.3
328$2,439.6$2,439.6
332$2,491.5$2,491.5
336$2,485.7$2,485.7
340$2,481.2$2,481.2
344$2,456.1$2,456.1
348$2,469.7$2,469.7
352$2,494.6$2,494.6
356$2,504.7$2,504.7
360$2,503.5$2,503.5
364$2,506.8$2,506.8
368$2,525.2$2,525.2
372$2,504.1$2,504.1
376$2,486.4$2,486.4
380$2,430.5$2,430.5
384$2,455.6$2,455.6
388$2,481.8$2,481.8
392$2,495.8$2,495.8
396$2,531.8$2,531.8
400$2,567.2$2,567.2
404$2,553.4$2,553.4
408$2,553.7$2,553.7
412$2,552.1$2,552.1
416$2,598.7$2,598.7
420$2,600$2,600
424$2,606.7$2,606.7
428$2,632.8$2,632.8
432$2,644.7$2,644.7
436$2,644$2,644
440$2,707.3$2,707.3
444$2,726$2,726
448$2,708$2,708
452$2,716.7$2,716.7
456$2,661.4$2,661.4
460$2,639.5$2,639.5
464$2,618.9$2,618.9
468$2,687.7$2,687.7
472$2,715.4$2,715.4
476$2,707.4$2,707.4
480$2,705.2$2,705.2
484$2,654.3$2,654.3
488$2,655.4$2,655.4
492$2,689.4$2,689.4
496$2,766.1$2,766.1
500$2,748.1$2,748.1
504$2,741.2$2,741.2
508$2,772.2$2,772.2
512$2,812.2$2,812.2
516$2,765.4$2,765.4
520$2,786.6$2,786.6
524$2,803.3$2,803.3
528$2,822.8$2,822.8
532$2,909.8$2,909.8
536$2,931$2,931
540$2,858.8$2,858.8
544$2,907.5$2,907.5
548$2,957.5$2,957.5
552$2,946.2$2,946.2
556$2,986.2$2,986.2
560$3,023.9$3,023.9
564$3,067.5$3,067.5
568$3,098.5$3,098.5
572$3,063.4$3,063.4
576$3,014.7$3,014.7
580$3,038.1$3,038.1
584$3,046.8$3,046.8
588$3,055.4$3,055.4
592$3,036.7$3,036.7
596$3,052.3$3,052.3
600$2,997.2$2,997.2
604$2,992.6$2,992.6
608$2,972.7$2,972.7
612$2,947.9$2,947.9
616$2,959.4$2,959.4
620$2,956.6$2,956.6
624$2,943.9$2,943.9
628$3,010.6$3,010.6
632$3,031$3,031
636$3,040.4$3,040.4
640$3,102.1$3,102.1
644$3,154.8$3,154.8
648$3,162$3,162
652$3,209.7$3,209.7
656$3,233.1$3,233.1
660$3,233.3$3,233.3
664$3,258$3,258
668$3,276.8$3,276.8
672$3,281.1$3,281.1
676$3,201.6$3,201.6
680$3,215$3,215
684$3,163.3$3,163.3
688$3,173.6$3,173.6
692$3,120.2$3,120.2
696$3,097.8$3,097.8
700$3,226.2$3,226.2
704$3,179.4$3,179.4
708$3,223.9$3,223.9
712$3,197.2$3,197.2
716$3,217.4$3,217.4

Holder confidence (model variable)

A behavioural assumption of the lab, not an observable.

Holder confidence
0.00.51.0day 0day 5day 10day 15day 20day 25
Table view
HourTRA at 0.96 USDStable market
01.01.0
41.01.0
81.01.0
121.01.0
161.01.0
201.01.0
241.01.0
281.01.0
321.01.0
361.01.0
401.01.0
441.01.0
481.01.0
521.01.0
561.01.0
601.01.0
641.01.0
681.01.0
721.01.0
761.01.0
801.01.0
841.01.0
881.01.0
921.01.0
961.01.0
1001.01.0
1041.01.0
1081.01.0
1121.01.0
1161.01.0
1201.01.0
1241.01.0
1281.01.0
1321.01.0
1361.01.0
1401.01.0
1441.01.0
1481.01.0
1521.01.0
1561.01.0
1601.01.0
1641.01.0
1681.01.0
1721.01.0
1761.01.0
1801.01.0
1841.01.0
1881.01.0
1921.01.0
1961.01.0
2001.01.0
2041.01.0
2081.01.0
2121.01.0
2161.01.0
2201.01.0
2241.01.0
2281.01.0
2321.01.0
2361.01.0
2401.01.0
2441.01.0
2481.01.0
2521.01.0
2561.01.0
2601.01.0
2641.01.0
2681.01.0
2721.01.0
2761.01.0
2801.01.0
2841.01.0
2881.01.0
2921.01.0
2961.01.0
3001.01.0
3041.01.0
3081.01.0
3121.01.0
3161.01.0
3201.01.0
3241.01.0
3281.01.0
3321.01.0
3361.01.0
3401.01.0
3441.01.0
3481.01.0
3521.01.0
3561.01.0
3601.01.0
3641.01.0
3681.01.0
3721.01.0
3761.01.0
3801.01.0
3841.01.0
3881.01.0
3921.01.0
3961.01.0
4001.01.0
4041.01.0
4081.01.0
4121.01.0
4161.01.0
4201.01.0
4241.01.0
4281.01.0
4321.01.0
4361.01.0
4401.01.0
4441.01.0
4481.01.0
4521.01.0
4561.01.0
4601.01.0
4641.01.0
4681.01.0
4721.01.0
4761.01.0
4801.01.0
4841.01.0
4881.01.0
4921.01.0
4961.01.0
5001.01.0
5041.01.0
5081.01.0
5121.01.0
5161.01.0
5201.01.0
5241.01.0
5281.01.0
5321.01.0
5361.01.0
5401.01.0
5441.01.0
5481.01.0
5521.01.0
5561.01.0
5601.01.0
5641.01.0
5681.01.0
5721.01.0
5761.01.0
5801.01.0
5841.01.0
5881.01.0
5921.01.0
5961.01.0
6001.01.0
6041.01.0
6081.01.0
6121.01.0
6161.01.0
6201.01.0
6241.01.0
6281.01.0
6321.01.0
6361.01.0
6401.01.0
6441.01.0
6481.01.0
6521.01.0
6561.01.0
6601.01.0
6641.01.0
6681.01.0
6721.01.0
6761.01.0
6801.01.0
6841.01.0
6881.01.0
6921.01.0
6961.01.0
7001.01.0
7041.01.0
7081.01.0
7121.01.0
7161.01.0

Why conversions were rejected

Hours in which an arbitrageur wanted to convert but the controller refused, by on-chain reason code.

No rejections in this run.

Holder outcomes by entry and exit

Mark-to-market return at pool prices, ignoring fees and slippage.

TokenEnter (day)Exit (day)Return
TRA01.0-0.0 %
TRA07.0-0.5 %
TRA030.0-0.5 %
TRA12.0-2.2 %
TRA18.0-0.5 %
TRA130.0-0.5 %
TRA34.0+0.0 %
TRA310.0-0.0 %
TRA330.0+0.0 %
TRA78.0-0.0 %
TRA714.0+0.0 %
TRA730.0+0.0 %
TRA1415.0-0.0 %
TRA1421.0+0.0 %
TRA1430.0+0.0 %
TRM01.0+2.5 %
TRM07.0-2.9 %
TRM030.0+25.9 %
TRM12.0+0.3 %
TRM18.0-7.2 %
TRM130.0+22.8 %
TRM34.0-3.6 %
TRM310.0-7.9 %
TRM330.0+23.0 %
TRM78.0-2.0 %
TRM714.0-0.4 %
TRM730.0+29.6 %
TRM1415.0+2.4 %
TRM1421.0+9.1 %
TRM1430.0+30.1 %

Parameter sensitivity

One parameter varies, everything else stays at the lab default (highlighted row). Values are means over 3 seeds.

Scenario10005000 (default)10000
Mass sell-off of both tokens25 bps25 bps25 bps
Mint cap reached91 bps91 bps91 bps
Recovery, then a second drop185 bps185 bps185 bps
TRA at 0.80 USD168 bps168 bps168 bps
TRA at 0.96 USD7 bps7 bps7 bps
TRM falls 50 %43 bps43 bps43 bps

Bold marks the best value in each row (lower is better). A better peg often costs more TRM dilution: read the metrics together.